The active half of the summer pattern will soon subside for the hotter half. Expect highs well into the 90s for Independence Day Weekend.

Tonight & Tomorrow: After any remnant showers fall apart shortly after dusk, skies will go mostly clear. A still and sticky night is ahead with low temperatures stopping in the mid-70s. Wednesday will bring the last remaining “good chance” of the week for showers and thunderstorms. As a weak front pushes through, scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected during the afternoon hours. Some of these storms could dump heavy rain quickly, so watch for localized flooding in low-lying spots. Outside of thunderstorms, skies will be partly sunny and highs will warm into the low 90s.

Thursday through Saturday: By Thursday, that front will stall offshore, and the atmosphere will trend drier—daily rain coverage will slip into the spotty 10-20% range. Expect highs in the mid-90s all three days. Though a tad lower, enough humidity will be present to cause heat index values near 105 degrees at times. Stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning while celebrating Independence Day.

Looking Beyond: By Sunday and Monday, the drier spell should start to reverse. A tropical airmass is expected to return, helping to reignite scattered to numerous storms during the afternoon. However, the exact evolution of the pattern and extent of the rain coverage will be highly dependent on a weak disturbance we will be monitoring in the Gulf.

The Tropics: A front is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast coast late this week.  An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. There is a 20% chance of gradual tropical or subtropical development as the low moves little.  

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– Josh 

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