UPDATE - July 8, 2026: Colorado State University researchers have released another update to their Atlantic hurricane season forecast, once again lowering their projected storm numbers. The forecast now calls for 9 named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane. That's down from the June forecast of 11 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

The further drop in numbers is primarily related to a high likelihood of strong El Niño around peak season. This will increase upper-level winds across the Atlantic basin, creating hostile conditions for tropical formation and intensification. While Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently sending mixed signals, with a combination of warm and cool regions, the strengthening El Niño remains the dominant factor that will likely limit overall activity.

Phil Klotzbach, the lead author of the forecast report, also notes that the 2026 Atlantic seasonal forecast is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 1965, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2009, and 2015 seasons. All of these seasons had below-average Atlantic hurricane activity, with most not even seeing over 10 named storms, boosting their confidence in the prediction.

However, the Storm Station likes to remind everyone that even in a quieter season, it only takes one storm to change everything. For instance, 1992 was one of those below-average seasons, but it was also the year Category 5 Hurricane Andrew struck Florida, and also eventually made landfall in Louisiana. The time to prepare is now, well before a storm threatens.

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