Plan for occasional disruptions to outdoor activities and commutes the next two days. By the middle of next week, a little humidity dip could provide some end-of-month steam relief.

Rest of the Week: A weak front dropping south from the Tennessee Valley will stall along the Gulf Coast by Friday, helping to keep rain coverage high as we wrap up the workweek. Due to the front, isolated showers and thunderstorms could actually linger into the night. Otherwise, skies will be mostly cloudy with lows in the mid-70s. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms on Friday, when rain coverage ticks up to 80%. Some of the storms could be slow movers, so if you find yourself under a downpour, watch out for localized street flooding in low-lying or poor drainage areas. Temperatures will hold in the low 90s thanks to the extra clouds and rain, but it will still feel muggy between storms.

Up Next: By Saturday, rain coverage will taper back to around 30%, which should allow for more sunshine and slightly hotter conditions, with highs in the lower 90s. Sunday looks even drier, with only a slim shot at a passing shower or thunderstorm and afternoon highs climbing into the mid-90s.

The pattern of more sunshine and lower rain coverage will continue into early next week, as another weak front moves through the region. A shot of slightly drier air will accompany that front. While this isn’t the first big fall front, any break in the humidity may be welcome as we move toward the end of August. With humidity dropping, lows could dip to seasonal averages in the low 70s, even some upper 60s north of I-12. Since dry air warms more efficiently than humid air, highs will still top out in the mid-90s, but feels-like temperatures will stay close to actual air temperatures.

The Tropics: Hurricane Erin continues to churn off the East Coast, bringing dangerous conditions to both land and sea. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Bermuda, where tropical storm conditions are expected late Thursday into Friday. Along the U.S. coastline, tropical storm conditions and storm surge flooding remain possible from parts of the North Carolina Outer Banks through Virginia, with water levels rising 2–4 feet in some coastal areas.

Even for places well away from the storm, Erin’s large size is creating life-threatening surf and rip currents up and down the East Coast. Erin is currently packing 100 mph winds and is expected to weaken gradually while racing northeast, passing south of Atlantic Canada this weekend.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three other disturbances in the Atlantic Basin. None poses a threat to the United States.

A disturbance east of the Leeward Islands could become a tropical depression this weekend as it tracks near or just north of the islands. It currently has a 50% chance of forming in the next 2 days and a 70% chance within a week.

Farther east, another tropical wave southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has a 40% chance of short-lived development before conditions turn less favorable in a couple of days.

Meanwhile, a small low about 1,200 miles southwest of the Azores has only a 30% chance of developing, with marginal conditions expected as it drifts slowly eastward.

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– Josh 

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